Matchday 5 is always a very interesting one as many teams’ fates will be decided including Tottenham, PSG, Liverpool, Napoli and Manchester United. Most need wins, but all need points and we’ll see if there are any matches we can take advantage of against the spread.
Let’s see how I did this weekend first.
This Season’s Record: 80-68-17 (+4.2 Units)
Matchweek 12 Record: 3-3-2 (-0.5 Units)
A few late goals and a couple of pushes limited the units this weekend but I’ll take anything but downwards.
Tuesday, November 27th
3:00 pm EST
Real Madrid @ Roma – Madrid are coming off of one of their worst losses in a while, against 10th place Eibar, while Roma are also coming off of a tough road loss at 16th place Udinese. Both clubs need to turn it around quickly with 1st place in Group G on the line. Both of these teams have had brutal starts to their league campaigns as they both sit outside of the top 5 in La Liga and Serie A. Before Real’s loss, they were playing some really inspiring soccer going 5-0 with a +13 goal differential but this loss will set them back as they have to travel to Rome to face a Roma side who have only lost one match at home this season. To add to that, the last time Roma lost before a Champions League match they bounced back to win 3-0 in October to Moscow, at home no less. I love Roma as home dogs with the possibility of winning the group at home against the defending champions. Roma (+0.5, -125).
Shakhtar Donetsk @ Hoffenheim – Hoffenheim are the only ones with something to play for here as Shakhtar are all but eliminated. Hoffenheim have actually only lost one of their last eight matches and haven’t lost at home in almost two months. Shakhtar meanwhile are coming off of a shocking home draw and lost their last away Champions League match to Man City by the tune of 6-0 to all but eliminate them. Something to play for versus nothing to play for, and I’m choosing the home team with a possible spot in the Round of 16 still in play. Hoffenheim (-1, +105).
Valencia @ Juventus – Valencia are never an easy out for teams especially with only one loss on their resume in their last thirteen. But prior to that streak, they hosted this Juventus team back in September and lost 2-0. Since then, Juve have been special. Outside of their fluke blown lead loss to United a few weeks ago, Juve have been unbeatable this season with a home record of 7-1-1 and a goal differential of +14. No way I’m fading that here. Juventus (-1.5, +115).
Wednesday, November 28th
12:55 pm EST
Monaco @ Atletico Madrid – Monaco did just get their first win since their first match of the season, but this will be too tall of an order for them. Atletico are a team that were 2 minutes shy of beating FC Barcelona, have only dropped points twice this season at home and have yet to lose a match at the Wanda Metropolitano. This could be a recipe for disaster for a Monaco team who have lost 4-0 to PSG at home, 4-0 to Brugge at home, 3-0 to Dortmund and 2-1 to this Atletico team at home. They just can’t beat bigger clubs right now and are facing an Atletico team who are leaving not as good clubs in their wake. Atletico Madrid (-2, -110).
3:00 pm EST
Inter Milan @ Tottenham – If you’re not familiar with the word ‘Spursy’, get used to it. Tottenham have always come up short, failed at the worst possible time, lost in embarrassing ways and so on in their long history. It is used when Tottenham (known as the Spurs) do something that falls in one of those categories and it happens quite often. Spurs just defeated Chelsea over the weekend at Wembley, ending their unbeaten streak, and are now in a must-win match against Inter Milan who sit three points above them in Group B. I can smell the Spursy from a mile away as I think they’ll come up short against an Inter team who know that all they need to do is get a point as their final Champions League match is home to PSV. I think Tottenham fall short and disappoint their fans yet again. Take the valued underdogs in this one. Inter Milan (+0.5, +115).
Brugge @ Borussia Dortmund – I’ll keep this one brief. Dortmund are on pace to set goal records as they’ve only scored less than 2 goals twice in their last 15 matches and are flying high in the Bundesliga and Group B in the Champions League. They know Atletico, who is tied with them atop the group, also have an easy home match and they’ll need every goal/point they can get to keep their lead atop their group. Expect them to run over a Brugge team who are on a slight losing streak. Borussia Dortmund (-1.5, -115).
Liverpool @ PSG – The big one of the week not only could decide who could wins the group, but the loser of this match will find themselves in a must-win scenario in matchday 6. I really don’t want to have to pick a side especially since Neymar and Mbappe’s statuses for the match are in question, so I’ll go with a bet on the over. Liverpool’s matches in the Champions League are averaging 3.0 goals per match while PSG’s are averaging 4.5 goals per match. Both teams will be going for it especially since neither defense is that special, leaving the O/U at 3 pretty vulnerable. Yeah, it’s juiced but I’m almost certain it will at least push. Over 3 (-130).
That’s it for this week’s Champions League matches.
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Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.