Champions League Matchweek 4

This Season: 74-64-33 (+9.4 Units)
Matchweek 11: 5-2-3 (+3.4 Units)

Another great weekend brings me one step closer to double digit units. If you put $100 on each pick so far this season you would have profited $940. Pretty good!

I’m going to do something a bit different this week and only pick and preview the matches I see value in, while passing on the others. Let’s get this party started.

UEFA Champions League
Tuesday, November 5th
12:55 pm EST

Slavia Prague @ FC Barcelona (TV: TNT) – Barca had a 3-1 loss this past weekend at Levante after blowing a 1-0 lead, their third loss away from home this season. Prague meanwhile have had a few decent Champions League performances this season (close loss to Barca in their first matchup and drawing at the San Siro against Inter Milan). But Vegas is overvaluing Prague and undervaluing Barca at home here due to recent results. FC Barcelona at home this season is undefeated with a +16 goal differential through six La Liga and Champions League matches and they can essentially lock up their group with a win here. I love Barca on what should be a line of at least 2.5, but Vegas is holding back a bit. It also has a high push potential which makes me feel comfortable about taking the favorite. FC Barcelona -2 (-105).

3:00 pm EST

Inter Milan @ Borussia Dortmund – Inter Milan are built to play a team like Dortmund. They’ll frustrate and stifle their offense while still being just as efficient without needing the majority of the ball. Schalke did something similar to Dortmund this past weekend and held them to a 0-0 draw. In Inter and Dortmund’s first matchup, Inter won 2-0 with 42% possession but double the chances created and double the shots on goal. I’m not saying Inter will win this game, but I think they’ll be effective in limiting Dortmund and can definitely get a draw if they grab a goal. With the way Lukaku and Lautaro are playing right now, I think there’s a good chance that happens. I’ll take the points in a match that Inter manager Antonio Conte thrives in. Inter Milan +0.5 (-125).

Ajax @ Chelsea (TV: TNT) – To me, this will probably be the best watch of the Tuesday matches. Chelsea are in some serious form right now with eight wins in their last nine matches in all competitions. But they’re about to face an Ajax team who is sneakily very, very good even though Chelsea went to Amsterdam and shockingly beat them two weeks ago (Ajax’s only loss this year). The Dutch side went to Valencia earlier in the season and won 3-0 very convincingly. I think Vegas is overvaluing a Chelsea team who has struggled at home so far this season with only two wins in their six Premier League and Champions League matches. I like Ajax to not only cover as underdogs but I’m also going to take a shot at their moneyline (to win outright) which sits at a very appealing 3/1 number. Ajax +0.5 (+105) and Ajax Moneyline (+300).

Lille @ Valencia – Another example of Vegas undervaluing a home team is Valencia here. Lille have been a shell of themselves this season. They’re sitting in 5th which isn’t too bad but they’re losing matches that they should be winning and are currently winless away from home in Ligue 1 and the Champions League. Valencia hasn’t been very good either but they haven’t lost at home in La Liga so far this season and their only loss at home in all competitions has come against Ajax. In their first matchup two weeks ago, Lille needed a 95th minute equalizer against Valencia after being man up for the final 10+ minutes. Valencia are also in a great position with a win here because they know that one of the two teams, if not both teams, will drop points on Tuesday. I like Valencia to win outright here. Valencia -0.5 (-105).

Salzburg @ Napoli – I don’t normally like taking Champions League over/unders but this one really jumped out to me. Both of these teams have been scoring goals for fun. Salzburg are averaging 4 goals scored per game and their matches have averaged 5.3 total goals in all competitions, with the number rising to 6 total goals per game in the Champions League. Napoli’s last four matches are averaging 3.5 total goals and when these two played a few weeks ago, five goals were scored on only 9 total shots on goal. I’m going to take this over since these two teams tend to play shootouts, Salzburg especially. Over 3.5 goals (-110).

Here are the other matches on Tuesday that I decided to avoid…

Genk @ Liverpool – Spread: Liverpool -3/Genk +3. Over/Under: 4

RB Leipzig @ Zenit St. Petersburg – Spread: Zenit Pickem/Leipzig Pickem. Over/Under 3

Benfica @ Lyon – Spread: Lyon -0.5/Benfica +0.5. Over/Under 3

Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.

Twitter: @nicodegallo

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