Champions League Round of 16 Leg 2 Picks (3/11/20) and New Podcast Episode

All-Time Record: 622-552-161 
Last Two Seasons: 359-315-94 (+14.3 units)
This Season: 147-146-46 (-0.3 Units)
UCL Round of 16 (3/10): 1-1 (+1.0 Units)

Solid day yesterday especially with my two units on Leipzig. Valencia got a bit unlucky in their match as they totally exposed themselves on the counter when they needed like four more goals to progress on aggregate and in turn lost the match 4-3.

Jared and I recorded a podcast Tuesday where we react to the growing threat of coronavirus on world football, they recap this past weekend’s Premier League slate, give their picks for who is slated to be relegated with 9 matches left and they go over this week’s Champions League fixtures. Come kick it with us…

Alright let’s do this!

UEFA Champions League
Wednesday, March 11th
4:00 pm EST

Borussia Dortmund (2) @ PSG (1) – This match will be played behind closed doors due to coronavirus and that will no doubt affect the way this match is played. Kylian Mbappe will likely be sitting this one out due to flu-like symptoms (don’t worry he tested negative for coronavirus) which will definitely not help PSG’s cause, but this is one of the deeper PSG teams we’ve ever seen and arguably the deepest team in the entire competition. I also think not having fans will put less pressure on PSG as much as it would help motivate them to win, therefore somewhat evening out the vibe. I like PSG to snatch back this tie and at the very least, win this match. Dortmund have had some serious defensive issues this season, especially away from home where they’ve conceded an average of 1.77 goals per match in the league. This match is also a great spot for the over. Second-leg matches historically have been very kind to the over (yet to not cover this season) and seven of PSG’s last nine matches have had at least four goals. I think this one has the potential of a 3-2 PSG win and if they don’t win, it should open the match up to goals since PSG will be chasing and sending men forward (see Valencia/Atalanta). PSG -0.5 (-120) and Over 3.5 Goals (-120).

Atletico Madrid (1) @ Liverpool (0) – This match has a VERY large caviot that could completely decide the outcome of this tie. If Atletico score first, Liverpool would need to score 3 goals in order to advance against an Atletico team who has not conceded three goals in a single match all season long. In fact, Simeone’s men rarely even concede 2 goals in a match as they’ve conceded an average of 0.77 goals per match in La Liga and 0.83 goals per match in the Champions League. This will be a very tough test for a Liverpool team who have seen a dip in form recently. The Reds have lost three of their last five matches with their only wins coming against Premier League relegation candidates at home, failed to keep a clean sheet in all five of those matches and have conceded the first goal in four of those five matches. I expect Atletico to cause so many issues both tactically and in the shithousery department and there’s no way I can fade their +1 line as underdogs here. Atletico Madrid +1 (-120) 2 UNITS.

Stay kickin’ it. Peace.

Twitter: @canikickitpod
Twitter: @nicodegallo

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