We are about to embark on one of the most intriguing Champions League stretches ever. We have basically a World Cup style knockout round for the Quarterfinals, Semifinals and Final with one leg for each match. This is the stuff dreams are made of for footy fans. Let’s see where my record stands…
All-Time Record: 691-638-172
Last Two Seasons: 427-389-105 (+14.7 units)
This Season: 216-219-57 (-2.3 Units)
UCL R16 + Twitter Picks: 3-3-2 (-0.5 Units)
Let’s dive into this week’s matches!
Wednesday, 3:00 EST
Atalanta v. PSG – PSG are seriously on the hot seat here. They’ve barely played competitive football since March and will be facing an Atalanta team who have been red hot since the COVID break, even giving Juventus a run for their money in Serie A. Likely without Mbappe, PSG are a little less scary and I think with Atalanta’s track record this season of playing up to teams’ levels, I think they can drag this to extra time at the last here. Gasperini’s boys are no joke and they need to be taken seriously. Atalanta +0.5 (-110).
Thursday, 3:00 EST
Atletico Madrid v. RB Leipzig – If there’s one team that the one-leg change will help the least, it might be Atletico. They’ve historically been great in two-legged ties and not as great in winner-take-all scenarios. But with that being said, who are Leipzig without Werner leading the line up top? We don’t know, and I don’t intend on finding out the hard way. I truly don’t know where they will get their goals especially against a very defensively-sound Atletico side. Atletico to Advance (-135).
Friday, 3:00 EST
Bayern Munich v. FC Barcelona – Barca showed some real signs of life against Napoli this past weekend and have made me more optimistic on their chances here against Bayern. Buuuutttt that level of optimism is still very low. Bayern are far and away the team to beat in this competition and I don’t see them having too much trouble here. They’ll keep the ball more than Barca, they’ll have Kimmich tracking Messi (likely Messi’s toughest marker all season), and they will pick apart Barca’s defense in the final third. I was lucky enough to get Bayern at positive odds and I like them to win in regulation here. Bayern Munich -0.5 (+105).
Saturday, 3:00 EST
Manchester City v. Lyon – Lyon are clearly the outliers here as they couldn’t even finish in a European spot in Ligue 1 in their abbreviated season. Sadly, they have to get past Manchester City, a team who can suffocate you with possession or pressure in the final third. I really think City get through here but the spread was just too much for me at 1.5 or even some places at 2. Instead, I think this is a good spot to bet the over and both teams to score. Lyon aren’t going to just sit and take City’s pressure and I think both teams score here in a City victory. Over 3 Goals (-110) and Both Teams To Score (+100).
Stay kickin’ it. Peace.