Wow it feels great to have the Champions League back in action! Let’s see how I fared in the first week of Champions League footy this season…
UCL Group MW 1: 7-2-1 (+5.4 Units)
This Season: 28-24-8 (+3.5 Units)
Previous Two Seasons: 466-417-113 (+27.0 Units)
All-Time Record: 728-666-180
Solid week in the Champions League which is where I struggled last year, so it feels good to start well! This weekend we have some seriously awesome matches in the Premier League so let’s dive right into those!
Friday, October 23rd
Aston Villa v. Leeds United – These odds are outrageous from bookies. Leeds sit at +245 against a team who, yes has had one of the best starts in the league, but is severely due regression and will face arguably the most dynamic offense they’ve seen all year (with the exception of Liverpool). Yes Villa have kept three clean sheets as well, but their defense is still allowing a lot of chances and shots on goal this season which points to them not being able to sustain their defensive success. I’ll take these odds on Leeds and the over every time. Leeds +245 and Over 3 Goals (-105).
Saturday, October 24th
West Ham v. Manchester City – West Ham are in a similar spot as Villa here. Their success has been impressive, but it’s just simply not sustainable. They’ll now have to face a Man City team who has eaten their lunch the last five matches winning by a combined 16-1. Defensively this could turn into a nightmare for the Hammers. Manchester City -1.5 (-105).
Fulham v. Crystal Palace – Hate to keep doing it but I have to keep fading Fulham. Bottom of the table with a -8 GD in 5 matches doesn’t convince me to pick you in a pickem match. Crystal Palace Pickem (-105).
Manchester United v. Chelsea – Chelsea are averaging 4.4 goals total per match while Manchester United are averaging 5.3 total goals per match, setting this one up to be a no-brainer over. But I also thought this would be closer to a pickem match but instead I see that United are favored with Chelsea all the way up to 2/1. Neither defense is good but I genuinely think that if Chelsea click offensively, United will be in real trouble and there’s too much value to pass up on with the Blues at that price. Over 3 Goals (-105) and Chelsea (+200).
Liverpool v. Sheffield United – I’m staying away from most Liverpool matches until I see how Liverpool play in the league without Van Dijk. Pass.
Sunday, October 25th
Southampton v. Everton – Everton sit atop of the table and much like Villa, are due some sort of regression. But this is a match that they should get at least a point from and coming off their big draw against Liverpool, I think this team’s confidence will be sky high. I’ll gladly take them on the pickem here. Everton Pickem (-120).
Wolves v. Newcastle – Wolves didn’t start perfectly but they have had back to back 1-0 wins with second half goals proving that they know how to grind to results yet again. Their biggest flaw is they paly to teams’ levels sometimes but they are far superior in terms of quality compared to Newcastle. Newcastle’s last match was a 4-1 loss to Manchester United, giving up three of those goals in the final five minutes but they didn’t deserve to be in the game at that stage. I’ll take Wolves moneyline here. Wolves -0.5 (-125).
Arsenal v. Leicester City – Arsenal look good but they didn’t execute the way they wanted to this week in the Europa League and even against Manchester City last weekend. They’re defending a lot better but they now face an unexpected challenge of finding a consistent goal-scorer. Arsenal are tied 12th in goals scored per game and I think this is a great spot for Leicester to get at least a point. Leicester City +0.5 (-105).
Monday, October 26th
Brighton v. West Brom – Similar to Fulham, it’s going to take a lot for me to pick West Brom. They’ve grinded to a few draws including an impressive one against Chelsea but they now face a Brighton team who have played mostly pretty good teams and have looked good, just without the results they want. I like Brighton to get the home win here even with the slightly expensive price. Brighton -0.5 (-130).
Burnley v. Tottenham – Spurs’ loss against West Ham was embarrassing to say the absolute least. The only thing that you can say has been bright about the last few weeks with Spurs is that they’re scoring goals (averaging 4.8 goals per game in their last 4 matches in all competitions). They will face a normally stout Burnley defense which Spurs have had trouble scoring against the last few years with one exception. In fact, if you remove the 5-0 match in December of 2019, the goal differential between these two teams are even with a 1-1-1 record. Burnley +1 (-125).
Stay kickin’ it. Peace.
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Twitter: @nicodegallo
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