Well it was another great week for us, with a big 7-3 Premier League weekend and a 6-4 Champions League week. As a reminder, I post my Champions League picks on Twitter every week so keep an eye out there @nicodegallo. So fare this year my Champions League record is 19-9-3 while my Premier League record is 31-31-9.
PL MW 7 and UCL: 13-7 (+5.9 Units)
This Season: 50-40-12 (+9.7 Units)
Previous Two Seasons: 488-433-117 (+33.2 Units)
All-Time Record: 750-682-184
Friday, November 6th
Brighton v. Burnley – I didn’t get this blog out in time but I did get my pick time-stamped by the ol’ Twitter machine:
Southampton @ Newcastle – This should be a great game with two teams who have outperformed most expectations so far, especially Southampton. Since their terrible defeat to Leicester last season, they’ve actually been one of the better non-big 6 teams in the league. For Newcastle, their recipe to success this season has been finding the goals that were missing from last year. Both teams are averaging at least 3 total goals per game which is always a good sign when the total is set at 2.5. I’m taking the Over and Southampton. Southampton -0.5 (-105) and Over 2.5 Goals (-105).
Saturday, November 7th
Everton v. Manchester United – United are one of the hardest teams to figure out right now. They can go and beat PSG in Paris and beat Leipzig 5-0, but then they lost to Arsenal at home for the first time in 14 years and lost to Basaksehir in the Champions League this week. Their inconsistent production, matched with an Everton team who is due for a big win makes this a perfect spot to take the well-priced underdog. I truly don’t think there’s that much separating these two teams and 2/1 was just too good for me to pass up on. Everton (+200).
Crystal Palace v. Leeds – I don’t care what anyone says. Whenever Leeds are a pickem, I’m taking them. Those are just the rules now. They have a better away record than Palace has a home record, they are really tough to slow down for the full 90 minutes, Palace rely too much on individual work and they only have one good result all year. I’ll take Bielsa’s boys. Leeds United Pickem (-130).
Chelsea v. Sheffield United – Chelsea had a lot of talk going into the year with their new signings, and although they haven’t had the time to fully gel, they’ve only had one loss all year long. They will now face a Sheffield team who hasn’t won a single game yet and are looking like a team who will struggle to stay up this season. Sheffield tend to limit teams’ production in the final third but through 7 matches they’ve only scored 3 goals. Chelsea have scored 16. I’ll take the spread with the positive odds. Chelsea -1.5 (+110).
West Ham v. Fulham – I’m falling for the trap and I don’t care. Someone please tell me how the over/under sits at 2.5 when these teams concede an average of 1.7 goals per game and have averaged a total of 3.2 goals per game. Also, 8 of West Ham’s 10 matches this season have had at least three goals. Over 2.5 Goals (-125).
Sunday, November 8th
West Brom v. Tottenham – This one felt like another no brainer (kiss of death I know). Spurs haven’t played well, but they’re still grinding to results while West Brom are just hot garbage. Even though they’ve grinded to 3 draws this season, West Brom have conceded the most goals which doesn’t bode well against Spurs’ electric front three. I’ll take Spurs with the possibility of them running the score up on West Brom here. Tottenham -1 (-120).
Leicester City v. Wolves – Leicester have outperformed most estimates this season so far but I still don’t think it’s sustainable. Wolves are always a good team to bet when there’s a pickem because they rarely get outplayed or lose all points in a match. Last year they had the third least amount of losses, tied with Manchester City, and the most draws alongside Arsenal and Brighton. I think this one is really tight and I feel more comfortable taking Wolves on the pickem especially with the price. Wolves Pickem (+125).
Manchester City v. Liverpool – The big one of the weekend. The consequences of this match aren’t as clear as they were last year due to the utter chaos in the table, but this could be a match we look back on towards the end of the campaign. Liverpool have been playing much better than expected after Van Dijk went down and their front three looks revitalized with Jota making an impact. But City are finally getting healthy again with basically the full back line back and Jesus returns so they can finally play a striker up top. But what makes me confident about City here (shocker Nico’s confident about City) is how they’ve won their recent games. Three straight clean sheets for the first time since September of last year and five in total this season. Liverpool without Thiago does make a difference but overall I think Liverpool’s expected squad will be ready to go. But I’m still not sold on their defense yet as they’ve yet to keep a clean sheet since VVD went down, their last one in the league was against Chelsea on 9/20 and they’ve conceded the second most goals in the league so far this season. In fact, since they won the league over the summer, they’ve conceded the most goals in the Premier League. I’m going to take City moneyline at home here expecting a tight, low-scoring match but breaking City’s way. Manchester City -0.5 (-105).
Arsenal v. Aston Villa – I don’t know what to make of this game from a head-to-head perspective. Arsenal look good and Villa had looked good but have recently tailed off. To me I can see a lot of goals coming from this one. Villa have obviously been apart of some high-scoring games and I think both managers know that their best lineups are attack-focused. Could easily be a push but let’s find out! Over 3 Goals (+105).
Stay kickin’ it. Peace.