It’s been a crazy couple of weeks since I’ve last posted as obviously we had Thanksgiving but I have also been slammed with work around the Holidays. No excuse though as I’ve still been tweeting all of my picks on Twitter. Sadly, it was a slow, long run of bad bets which I will hopefully turn around by posting a full length blog for the weekend. We need that good mojo!
11/6 – 12/4: 17-23-8 (-7.4 Units)
This Season: 67-63-20 (+2.3 Units)
Previous Two Seasons: 505-456-125 (+25.8 Units)
All-Time Record: 767-705-192
Alright time to get to what you came here for…
Burnley v. Everton – Burnley are looking to bounce back after getting absolutely manhandled last weekend by a very strong City team. They’re also trying to buck some very poor overall form as they only have 5 points through 9 matches. They’ll face an Everton team who were the talk of the league to start the season but have only one win from their last five with four of those being losses. I think Burnley respond well to their embarrassing loss and give Everton a game here so I’m going to take the points. Burnley +0.5 (-110).
Manchester City v. Fulham – I think we see a carbon-copy from last weekend’s match against Burnley from City here. They rested a few key players this week against Porto and they’re looking to be in top form in the league. I don’t see Fulham having much of a chance here and this game could quickly run away from them. Manchester City -2.5 (-105).
West Ham v. Manchester United – This match was tough to pick because I loved West Ham as home dogs but I also think fading United away from home is tricky as they’re currently on a record-breaking run away from home. Instead, due to United’s poor defense this season and West Ham’s tendency to have high-scoring matches against top six teams, I’m going to take the over here. Over 2.5 Goals (-130).
Chelsea v. Leeds – Chelsea have been in solid league form and have actually been pretty consistent this year while Leeds have been somewhat all over the place. But the hallmark of this Leeds team is they can easily play up to top teams’ levels under Bielsa and this will be against a familiar foe in Frank Lampard. Two seasons ago Bielsa was accused of spying by Lampard’s Derby County and ever since it’s lived in the folklore of English football. On Saturday they finally face off since their Playoff semifinal and I trust Bielsa to pull through here in an exciting, high-scoring match. This spread feels a bit too big for me. Leeds +1 (-105) and Over 3 Goals (-120).
West Brom v. Crystal Palace – The ‘fade West Brom at all costs’ continues even after their win last weekend. Plus, Wilfried Zaha is returning for Palace for the first time since their 4-1 win at Leeds. Zaha is the engine for this team and with him in the squad, they always have a chance. I’ll absolutely take Palace on the pickem. Crystal Palace Pickem (-125)
Sheffield United v. Leicester City – This one surprised me. Yes Sheffield are home here but they have had the worst start through ten games in league history and that is just absolute fade material. Leicester aren’t in good form and aren’t having a great year and did travel to Ukraine this week just to lose, but I just cant take anything other than the Foxes at positive odds. Leicester City -0.5 (+105).
Tottenham v. Arsenal – The North London Derby. My favorite non-City derby in England and this year should be unlike many others. Obviously COVID puts a damper on any derby but this match will actually have a limited amount of fans which Spurs have not had all season and neither team have had in the league all season. The match itself should be a great one as both teams have changed pretty dramatically since last season’s derbies. Some new players, players emerging as key facets for both club, both managers putting their stamps on the club and more. Mourinho said Kane is a doubt but we all know that’s likely gamesmanship. Partey and Lloris are also doubts and are unlikely to play, which means Joe Hart might have to make his NLD debut. That doesn’t bode well for Spurs and in a game that can go both ways every year, I love the points here. Arsenal +0.5 (-120).
Liverpool v. Wolves – Liverpool aren’t playing well and that’s no secret. They’re still grinding to results but they’ve only really had one result in their last five that was convincing which came against Leicester. Wolves are a tough team to break down too as they only have one loss from their last seven in the league and they rarely let games get away from them. Yes Wolves will be without Jimenez after he fractured his skull last week but Wolves’ depth of attacking talent isn’t something to gawk at. Take the points. Wolves +1 (-105).
Brighton v. Southampton – Southampton have been playing fantastic footy all season so far this year and the results are proving that as they sit just outside of the European places in the table and their only loss in their last eight league matches came last weekend when they blew a 2-0 lead to United in the second half and lost 3-2. Brighton are good and I love picking them but I was a bit shocked to see Southampton at only a pickem with positive odds here. Take the Saints. Southampton Pickem (+110).
Stay kickin’ it. Peace.