A great week of Premier League and Champions League brings us back on track with a 6-2-1 +4.3 units in the Champions League and 6-4 +1.8 units in the Premier League. Let’s see where that puts us…
UCL and EPL: 12-6-1 (+6.1 Units)
This Season: 79-69-21 (+8.4 Units)
Previous Two Seasons: 517-462-126 (+31.9 Units)
All-Time Record: 779-711-193
Let’s dive right into the picks for the weekend!
Leeds v. West Ham – Both of these teams love high-energy football and neither one tends to back down and sit back. Both teams average well over 3 total goals per game and both teams have had inconsistent results across the board. I had trouble picking so I felt like the over was a good bet for at least a push here. Expect this to be a nonstop, energetic game with hopefully lots of goals. Over 3 Goals (-110).
Wolves v. Aston Villa – Villa haven’t played a match in two weeks after their match last week became the first Premier League match to be suspended due to COVID since the league came back in June. Wolves will have a week’s rest and are coming off of a bad loss against Liverpool last week. I like Wolves to bounce back here and get the win especially with their great price on the moneyline. Wolves (+135).
Newcastle v. West Brom – The same as Villa, Newcastle haven’t played in two weeks and have only gotten one or two training sessions in the last two weeks as well. That’s an immediate fade. But West Brom are also an immediate fade. What happens when an unstoppable object meets an immovable force? You bet the draw. Draw (+235).
Manchester United v. Manchester City – The Manchester Derby is obviously huge for me, and I almost always bet City. Put that bias aside because I truly believe City should win this. Ole is on the hot seat, the United locker room is in disarray, one of their main players wants to leave and they just lost a must-win game that now puts them in the Europa League. Take that against a City team finally in good form, healthy with Aguero returning, the second best defensive record in the league and a well-rested and rotated squad and how could not take Man City? Manchester City -0.5 (-130).
Everton v. Chelsea – Chelsea are really playing well outside of their draw against Krasnodar this week, which didn’t mean much at all. They rested several key players and should be ready to go for this weekend. For some reason though, I think Everton can really trip them up here because I’ve seen how they’ve played against some of the top teams and I trust that they’ll cause some issues. But saying that, I don’t feel confident enough to bet on them. So I’m going to take the over. Both of these teams average well over 3 total goals per game so I’m riding with the over here. Over 3 Goals (-105).
Southampton v. Sheffield United – This one was a no-brainer. Southampton are 5th this season and are genuinely playing like it. Sheffield United? Well, they’re dogshit. 1 point from 11 matches is absolutely pathetic and I love Southampton here especially with the pressure they’ll put on a team who likely won’t be able to cope. Southampton -0.5 (-130).
Crystal Palace v. Spurs – Spurs are obviously the story of the season so far but Palace are not a lookover team here. They always play well enough to cause trouble when Zaha is in the lineup and Spurs are due some sort of regression. I don’t care when it happens, but when the opportunity presents itself, I’m going to bet against them when I don’t feel completely comfortable doing so. Spurs always have trouble going to Palace and I think this game could have some real energy to it. I’m going to take the over because of its low number here at such a cheap price. Over 2.5 Goals (-105).
Leicester City v. Brighton – I’ve loved Brighton and that’s been no secret this season. They’ve played brilliantly this season and are even sniffing towards the top 4 in the expected points but are sitting in 16th. Something has to break for this team with the way they’re playing and I’m going to keep trusting them to figure out their end product. Leicester had a midweek match where they played a lot of starters while Brighton will have a full week off. I like Brighton as an underdog here and I think the over/under sitting at 2.5 is way too low for two teams who love to push forward. Brighton +0.5 (-120) and Over 2.5 Goals (-110).
BONUS PICK
MLS Cup Final – Columbus Crew v. Seattle Sounders – Seattle Sounders Pickem (-110).
Stay kickin’ it. Peace.
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Twitter: @nicodegallo
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