Matchweek 34 Picks (+ bonus MLS Picks)

We are now hitting the point of the season where relegation battles become as important as title runs and a European birth can make or break your future. Every game matters for a set number of clubs which in my opinion gives those teams more value. Sometimes the market adjusts, other times it doesn’t. Regardless, I’ll pick the teams fighting for their lives or a Champions League place if they’re facing a team who’s playing for nothing.

Should be a fun last few matchweeks! Let’s see how we did this week…

All-Time Record: 664-598-168
Last Two Seasons: 401-361-101 (+15.5 units)
This Season: 189-192-53 (-1.5 Units)
EPL MW 33: 4-2-1 (+2.0 Units)

An exact flip flop from last week as I went 2-4-1 -2 units last week. I’ve never ended a season in the negative let alone let my units go into the negative (until this season) so let’s make sure we can keep it that way. Here are my picks for the Premier League this weekend with a sprinkle of MLS action.

Premier League

Manchester City -1.5 (-125) – City are just too strong for Brighton and with Brighton basically safe, this one felt like a no-brainer.

Wolves -0.5 (+105) and Over 2 Goals (-115) – Wolves need a win here if they want to keep their Europa League spot and with a possible Arsenal-Spurs draw, they could extend that lead. Take them on positive odds and the over.

Arsenal (+170), Arsenal Pickem (-110), Arsenal/Spurs Over 2.5 (-110) – Yep. I’m going all in on Arsenal here for the North London Derby. They’ve played much better recently and are really flowing under Arteta. Plus, after watching Spurs play like crap on Thursday, there was no way I was going to pick them here.

Southampton/Manchester United Over 3 (-105) – This one feels like a push but the upside is too good to pass up. Southampton aren’t going anywhere but United, who are on fire, are still fighting for the last Champions League spot and are behind on GD with Leicester. They’ll need the goals here.

MLS is BACK

Hell yeah baby! My favorite league returns in all (literally none) of its glory.

Seattle Sounders -0.5 (+110) – The reigning champions are positive odds against a San Jose team that outperformed last year and are overvalued? Yep.

New York Red Bulls/Atlanta United Over 3 (+110) –The books have adjusted their totals after seeing three 1-0 scorelines to start off the tournament but I don’t think those numbers will continue. These are two high-scoring teams and I can’t fade the over. You know what they say, MLS isn’t truly back until the overs start hitting.

Columbus Crew -0.5 (-110) – Pro tip; fade Cincinnati until they can actually show that they belong in this league. Teams who struggle in year 1 in MLS generally struggle in year 2 unless they undergo major changes. Cincy did not.

Stay kickin’ it. Peace.

Twitter: @canikickitpod
Twitter: @nicodegallo

Matchweek 33 Picks

These matches are happening faster than I can even formulate my picks! I’ve still got a batch of picks for you though so no worries. Lots of huge matches deciding the top 4/5 spots towards the top and relegation battles towards the bottom. Enjoy the week of matches!

All-Time Record: 660-596-167
Last Two Seasons: 397-359-100 (+13.5 units)
This Season: 185-190-52 (-3.5. Units)
EPL MW 32: 2-4-1 (-2.0 Units)

7/7
Chelsea -1 (-145)
Watford (-135)
Leicester/Arsenal Over 2.5 (-110)

7/8
Burnley +0.5 (-115)
Wolves (+120)

7/9
Southampton +0.5 (-125)
Bournemouth +1 (-135)

Stay kickin’ it. Peace.

Twitter: @canikickitpod
Twitter: @nicodegallo

Premier League Matchweek 32 Picks

Decent week to get me back on track after my disaster last week.

All-Time Record: 658-592-166
Last Two Seasons: 395-355-99 (+15.5 units)
This Season: 183-186-51 (-1.5. Units)
EPL MW 30: 5-4 (+1.0 Units)

Here are my picks for the weekend!

Brighton (+125)

Bournemouth/Manchester United Over 3 Goals (-110)

Wolves (+125)

Burnley (+200)

Newcastle Pickem (-110)

Manchester City -1.5 (-110)

Stay kickin’ it. Peace.

Twitter: @canikickitpod
Twitter: @nicodegallo

EPL Matchweek 32 (+ bonus picks) and Liverpool are Champions Podcast

Liverpool are Champions!! Jared and millions of others dreams have come true. Liverpool are top flight champions for the first time in three decades. Hear Jared’s raw reaction, Nico’s official concession, a discussion about which team is ‘better’, a look back on how this team did it and more! Come kick it with us…

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/can-i-kick-it/id1477486316?i=1000479762692

Below are the picks for this week’s fixtures. Tough week last week for me as it’s been tough to nail down how teams are playing after the long break but now that we have some sort of matches in our belt, things should be a little easier going forward.

All-Time Record: 653-588-166
Last Two Seasons: 390-351-99 (+14.5 units)
This Season: 178-182-51 (-2.5. Units)
EPL MW 30: 1-7-1 (-5.5 Units)

Premier League

Brighton +1 (-115)
Leicester City Pickem (+110)
Leicester City ML (+195)
Newcastle/Bournemouth Over 2 Goals (-125)
Chelsea -1 (+100)
Sheffield United +0.5 (-115)
Manchester City ML (+105)

Bonus Picks

Lazio ML (-125)
Atletico Madrid +0.5 (+105)

Stay kickin’ it. Peace.

Twitter: @canikickitpod
Twitter: @nicodegallo
Twitter: @oh_my_gos

Premier League Matchweek 31 Picks

The Premier League is back and has already filled the news with storylines. Manchester City are back to their dominant ways after dismantling Arsenal and Burnley, Arsenal have had two very disappointing results along with a few major injuries including GK Bernd Leno and Liverpool’s coronation has been delayed after a 0-0 draw at Goodison. Not to be forgotten of course is the entire league showing respect to the Black Lives Matters movements with patches, taking a knee before the match and with the movement’s name replacing the backs of their shirts.

All-Time Record: 652-581-165
Last Two Seasons: 389-344-98 (+19.9 units)
This Season: 177-175-50 (+3.0 Units)
EPL MW 30: 4-3 (+1.8 Units)

A solid week with my Southampton +175 raising my unit count higher than my average 4-3 weeks. This week we have a huge slate of matches and I have 9 picks for you so strap in.

Tuesday, June 23rd
1:00 pm EST

Brighton @ Leicester – Leicester’s return this Saturday was somewhat lackluster in a 1-1 draw to Watford. They’ll face a Brighton team who just stole a win against Arsenal, but my confidence level in them hasn’t really risen. They play a rough style with the intent of slowing down play which works against an Arsenal team that often has trouble building chances, but won’t work against Leicester who ranks third in big chances created and they’re great at build up play. Even with the juice here, Leicester feel like the safe play in a bounce back game. Leicester City (-150).

3:15 pm EST

West Ham @ Tottenham – I don’t have too much confidence in betting either of these teams right now so I’m going to side with the over. Both of these teams average over 2.5 total goals per match and their match back in November produced 5 goals. Yes, things have changes especially with Spurs since then, but West Ham are a team who hasn’t produced a clean sheet in the league in 10 matches. Spurs are in a similar boat with only two clean sheets in the league since early December (one was with a City red card). I’ll take the over. Over 2.5 Goals (-115).

Wednesday, June 24th
1:00 pm EST

Bournemouth @ Wolves – Bournemouth’s defense was shaky before the break and it continued into their match on Saturday. They’ve conceded an average of over 2 goals per game over their last 5 matches and it’s been a decent trend for them for a lot of the season. I think Wolves will score multiple here and I like the price on the over as well as the spread. Wolves -1 (+105) and Over 2.5 Goals (+105).

Everton @ Norwich – To be honest I hate betting on both of these teams. They’re both inconsistent, have been playing at a low level for a lot of the season and are both coming off of unconvincing results from the weekend (yes, Everton drew the best team in the league but it wasn’t very convincing). But the bottom line is that Norwich don’t belong in the same league as Everton and they are almost guaranteed to go down now. I’ll gladly take Everton against a motivation-less Championship side. Everton -0.5 (-105).

Aston Villa @ Newcastle – This one feels like a toss up to me and my gut wants to bet Villa, but I know that three points for them can be hard to come by. They played well enough against Chelsea but yet again can’t seem to figure out their defensive woes as they’ve conceded the most goals in the league so far. For Newcastle, I was fully convinced after their big win against Sheffield even if they were man up for half of the game. They responded well and their offense is beginning to click a bit. Newcastle -0.5 (+135).

Thursday, June 25th
1:00 pm EST

Arsenal @ Southampton – Poor Arsenal. The Gunners have a laundry list of injuries and suspensions in key areas including goalkeeper. Their run of form in their first two matches back has been pretty bad and I just can’t stomach betting on them. Southampton meanwhile put in a great performance even if it was against Norwich as three goals and a clean sheet are always impressive. This is a principle game, so I’ll be taking Southampton on the pickem. Southampton Pickem (-105).

Watford @ Burnley – Wooof Burnley got absolutely smoked on Monday and will now have to face a Watford team who held strong against a European candidate and quality team in Wolves. Adding to Burnley’s struggles, they’ve also caught the injury bug and could barely fill the bench against City on Monday. I’ll take Watford with this very generous price in a game where three points are almost a must for them. Watford (+150).

Manchester City @ Chelsea – In what should be the match with the highest quality, Man City will look to continue their wonderful start against a Chelsea team who is finally healthy. Chelsea didn’t start well against Villa and even went down 1-0, a worrying sign before you play a team in Manchester City who can and will punish you early. Even with Aguero’s new knee injury, City have by far the best depth in the league and with rotation players such as Foden beginning to shine, it’s hard to bet against a team like City right now. Manchester City -0.5 (-120).

That’s all for this week’s picks. Best of luck to all! Expect a podcast after these matches and before the weekend’s matches.

Stay kickin’ it. Peace.

Twitter: @canikickitpod
Twitter: @nicodegallo

PREMIER LEAGUE IS BACK; New Podcast and Picks

It’s been 100 days since the Premier League last kicked a ball and we are now looking at a match almost every single day for 5 straight weeks. It’s an exciting time to become a fan, continue your fandom, or even to have something to watch and bet on in the mornings.

Jared and I completed our first Premier League podcast to talk about the matches, what we expect, our betting picks and more. Check it out below.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/can-i-kick-it/id1477486316#episodeGuid=tag%3Asoundcloud%2C2010%3Atracks%2F841829503

And as always, my picks for the Premier League this week/weekend are below. To celebrate the Prem’s return, I am holding out on official Bundesliga and Coppa Italia bets.

All-Time Record: 648-578-165
Last Two Seasons: 385-341-98 (+18.1 units)
This Season: 173-172-50 (+1.2 Units)
Bundesliga MW 31: 3-3 (+0.0 Units)

Wednesday, June 17th
3:15 pm EST

Manchester City -1.5 (-115) – In the last few seasons, City have absolutely trounced Arsenal every time they’ve played each other. I don’t see anyone slowing down De Bruyne in that Arsenal midfield and I think the Gunners’ issues at the back won’t go away. Plus, for the first time all season, Sane, De Bruyne and Laporte are all available for Pep.

Friday, June 19th
1:00 pm EST

Southampton (+170) *PRICE CHANGE AT 10:30 am EST FROM +130*- These are too good of odds for a team who has much more potential than they’ve shown for parts of this season. I think the break will have suited Southampton and I’ll also always fade Norwich if I have the chance.

3:15 pm EST
Manchester United v Tottenham Over 2.5 Goals (-110) – I truly believe this will be a match riddled with errors as it’s the first big 6 matchup since the return with two clubs prone to mistakes already. Four of their last five meetings have had at least 3 goals, which is also good enough for me.

Saturday, June 20th
7:30 am EST

Leicester City (+120) – The value on Leicester here is puzzling. Many people are thinking they regress a bit after the break and I understand that, but I don’t see any specific evidence behind that. This team consistently played like the third best team in the league for 28+ matchweeks and I don’t see that changing to be honest. Plus, they’re playing Watford so this one felt easy to me.

12:30 pm EST
Wolves (+125) – Similar to the previous match, Wolves are just the outright better club here and could’ve really used that 3-month break to get their legs under them after playing nonstop for almost 7 months. Fade West Ham at all costs as well.

2:45 pm EST
Bournemouth Pickem (-130) – This one felt like the safe play here. Bournemouth need points in most of their matches if they want to climb out of the relegation zone and stay in the Premier League next year. Palace have exceeded expectations this year but I think that they aren’t fighting for nearly as much as the Cherries are here.

Stay kickin’ it. Peace.

Twitter: @canikickitpod
Twitter: @nicodegallo
Twitter: @oh_my_gos

Matchweek 31 Picks

Quick one for you. Solid week last week to get us back on track just before the rest of the leagues return.

All-Time Record: 645-575-165
Last Two Seasons: 382-338-98 (+18.1units)
This Season: 170-169-50 (+1.2 Units)
Bundesliga MW 27: 5-4-1 (+4.6 Units)

I’m sticking with the Bundesliga this weekend as I’m wait for La Liga and Serie A to show us how they handle coming back from the long break.

Freiburg -0.5 (+400)

Union Berlin +0.5 (-120)

Dortmund -1.5 (+100)

Werder Bremen -0.5 (+115)

Frankfurt +0.5 (-120)

Leverkusen -1 (-115)

Twitter: @canikickitpod
Twitter: @nicodegallo

Matchweek 30 Picks

That’s the way to bounce back from an almost 8-unit loss last matchweek! Here are my quick picks for this weekends matches…

All-Time Record: 640-571-164
Last Two Seasons: 377-334-97 (+13.5 units)
This Season: 165-165-49 (-3.4 Units)
Bundesliga MW 27: 7-4-1 (+2.2 Units)

Saturday, June 6th

RB Leipzig -2.5 (-110)
Hoffenheim Pickem (-115)
Frankfurt -0.5 (-105)
Frankfurt/Mainz Over 3 (-115)
Bayern/Leverkusen Over 3.5 (-120)
Hertha Berlin +1.5 (-115)
Hertha Berlin/Dortmund Over 3.5 (-110)

Sunday, June 7th

Wolfsburg -0.5 (+105)
Schalke/Union Berlin Draw (+220)
Koln/Augsburg Draw (+260)

Twitter: @canikickitpod
Twitter: @nicodegallo

Matchweek 29 Picks

All-Time Record: 633-567-163 
Last Two Seasons: 370-330-96 (+11.3 units)
This Season: 158-161-48 (-5.6 Units)
Bundesliga MW 28: 2-7 (-7.9 Units)

Well this week was an absolute debacle! An all-time low week with picks as the continuing trend of away teams being successful continues. As of Friday morning, only 5 home teams have won their matches in the first 27 matches back since the COVID break (18.5% versus the pre-break average of around 45%).

Let’s see what I have cooked up for this weekend’s matches…

Leverkusen -1 (+110), Over 3 Goals (-130) – I see Leverkusen bouncing back from their odd 4-1 loss to Wolfsburg this past week. Freiburg are yet to keep a clean sheet so far since the return and they also haven’t won yet. Oh, and they’re home so why not fade them.

Schalke Pickem (-125) – There’s just no way they continue this poor form. A match against Werder is just what the doctor ordered for Schalke.

Hertha/Augsburg Over 3 Goals (-130) – Whenever there’s an over/under of 2.5 in the Bundesliga, take it. Only one of these two teams’ six combined matches since the break have had less than 3 goals so far.

Hoffenheim Pickem (-130) – Mainz are fighting for their life but I can’t fade the better team on the pickem line here. And again, I’ll take the away team right now.

Frankfurt +0.5 (-105) – Frankfurt swayed their horrible form with a draw against Freiburg this week and I think Wolfsburg are due some regression after their big win against Leverkusen. I’ll take the points.

Bayern Munich -3 (-105) and Over 4 goals (-125) – This will be more of a funeral for Dusseldorf than a football match. Whatever you do, don’t fade Bayern.

Union Berlin +1 (+100) – Another away team with a line that I think they can handle. I think Gladbach are the better team and will likely win, but I think Union have a decent chance at nabbing a point or at the very least keeping it close.

Dortmund -1.5 (-125) – I really don’t see Dortmund slipping up against the worst team in the league when points and goals are crucial right now for the Black and Yellow.

RB Leipzig -1 (-120) – Leipzig have a great bounce-back opportunity here against Koln and I see them taking serious advantage. The draw this week was a bad look for Leipzig but it was more of them shooting themselves in the foot than anything else. This should be business as usual.

In total I picked 2 home teams in the 9 matches so hopefully the away trend continues. Expect a podcast to come Friday night or Saturday morning!

Twitter: @canikickitpod
Twitter: @nicodegallo

Bundesliga Matchweek 28 Picks

Short and sweet picks blog here as we have some midweek action for you. Bayern/Dortmund headline the week in a Der Klassiker which might decide the title but there are also some other hidden gems like Leverkusen/Wolfsburg, Frankfurt/Freiburg and more!

All-Time Record: 631-560-163 
Last Two Seasons: 368-323-96 (+16.9 units)
This Season: 156-154-48 (+2.3 Units)
Bundesliga MW 27: 6-3 (+3.7 Units)

Saturday
Bayern Munich -0.5 (-120)
Bayern/Dortmund Over 3.5 goals (-110)
Freiburg +0.5 (-120)
Leverkusen -0.5 (-160)
Monchengladbach -0.5 (-160)

Sunday
RB Leipzig -1.5 (-110)
Union Berlin -0.5 (+120)
Augsburg -0.5 (-110)
Schalke/Dusseldorf DRAW (+245)
FC Koln +0.5 (-145)

Twitter: @canikickitpod
Twitter: @nicodegallo