We are now hitting the point of the season where relegation battles become as important as title runs and a European birth can make or break your future. Every game matters for a set number of clubs which in my opinion gives those teams more value. Sometimes the market adjusts, other times it doesn’t. Regardless, I’ll pick the teams fighting for their lives or a Champions League place if they’re facing a team who’s playing for nothing.
Should be a fun last few matchweeks! Let’s see how we did this week…
All-Time Record: 664-598-168
Last Two Seasons: 401-361-101 (+15.5 units)
This Season: 189-192-53 (-1.5 Units)
EPL MW 33: 4-2-1 (+2.0 Units)
An exact flip flop from last week as I went 2-4-1 -2 units last week. I’ve never ended a season in the negative let alone let my units go into the negative (until this season) so let’s make sure we can keep it that way. Here are my picks for the Premier League this weekend with a sprinkle of MLS action.
Manchester City -1.5 (-125) – City are just too strong for Brighton and with Brighton basically safe, this one felt like a no-brainer.
Wolves -0.5 (+105) and Over 2 Goals (-115) – Wolves need a win here if they want to keep their Europa League spot and with a possible Arsenal-Spurs draw, they could extend that lead. Take them on positive odds and the over.
Arsenal (+170), Arsenal Pickem (-110), Arsenal/Spurs Over 2.5 (-110) – Yep. I’m going all in on Arsenal here for the North London Derby. They’ve played much better recently and are really flowing under Arteta. Plus, after watching Spurs play like crap on Thursday, there was no way I was going to pick them here.
Southampton/Manchester United Over 3 (-105) – This one feels like a push but the upside is too good to pass up. Southampton aren’t going anywhere but United, who are on fire, are still fighting for the last Champions League spot and are behind on GD with Leicester. They’ll need the goals here.
MLS is BACK
Hell yeah baby! My favorite league returns in all (literally none) of its glory.
Seattle Sounders -0.5 (+110) – The reigning champions are positive odds against a San Jose team that outperformed last year and are overvalued? Yep.
New York Red Bulls/Atlanta United Over 3 (+110) –The books have adjusted their totals after seeing three 1-0 scorelines to start off the tournament but I don’t think those numbers will continue. These are two high-scoring teams and I can’t fade the over. You know what they say, MLS isn’t truly back until the overs start hitting.
Columbus Crew -0.5 (-110) – Pro tip; fade Cincinnati until they can actually show that they belong in this league. Teams who struggle in year 1 in MLS generally struggle in year 2 unless they undergo major changes. Cincy did not.
Stay kickin’ it. Peace.