Matchweek 33 Weekend Preview

We have an amazing weekend ahead of us but let’s look back on what was an interesting week in the Premier League.

This Season’s Record: 175-150-41 (+3.5 Units)
Matchweek 33 Weekday: 4-3 (+0.8 Units)

Quick Premier League Recap:

  • Man City jump back into first as they are now one point above Liverpool with the same matches played.
  • Spurs win in their new ground for the first time and jump back into third place, pushing Arsenal back to fourth.
  • Chelsea won and sit in fifth tied with Arsenal on points, but with a worse differential than the gooners by five goals.
  • Fulham have been relegated.

We go into a weekend which includes a few MASSIVE matches including the Der Klassiker between Bayern and Dortmund, Barcelona host Atletico Madrid, Juventus host Milan and the FA Cup semifinals will be taking place at Wembley. I’ll have a pick for all of them as well as a few wild card matches where I find some value.

I put my Bayern/Dortmund preview separately due to it’s length compared to my other previews which you can find HERE. I highly recommend you take a quick read as it may be the match of the club season.

Let’s kick it…

Saturday, April 6th
German Bundesliga
9:30 am EST

RB Leipzig @ Bayer Leverkusen (TV: FS2) – These two have been in polar opposite form both short term and long term. Leverkusen have lost their last two and are 2-1-3 (W-D-L) in their last six while Lepizig have won their last three and their only losses in 2019 have been to Dortmund and Bayern. I love Leipzig not only because of the intrinsic value a pickem has, but the price of (+110) is too good to pass up when they’re the better team and are in better form. They’ve also been impressive away from home this season. I’ll take Leipzig. RB Leipzig (Pickem, +110).

English Premier League
10:00 am EST

Leicester @ Huddersfield – Leicester are on fire right now and they will be traveling to a Huddersfield squad who are in complete shambles. They’ve lost four straight to Brighton, Bournemouth, West Ham and Palace while Leicester have won four of the last five. Adding to that, Leicester are sixth in the away table in the league and Huddersfield are last in the home table. I’ll never bet on Huddersfield and Leicester are a hot ticket, so good luck convincing me against this one even with the heavy price as favorites. Leicester City (-0.5, -130).

Crystal Palace @ Newcastle United (TV: NBCSN) – Newcastle have turned their poor away form from earlier in the season around but will have to face a Palace team who have been great away from home this season. But not only is history not on Palace’s side here as they have only won once at Newcastle since the early 70’s, but Newcastle have won their last four at home including wins against City and Everton. I also think Palace having to play two away matches back to back will be tough, especially going to rival Spurs opening their new stadium then to Newcastle which is one of the harder places to play at. Yes Palace’s form all season away from home has been great, but Newcastle are in a bit better shape especially as of late. I like Newcastle on the home pickem line. Newcastle United (Pick, -120).

Italian Serie A
12:00 pm EST

AC Milan @ Juventus (Stream: ESPN+) – Juve will be coming into this match with a cloud looming over them after the Moise Kean incident. If you’re unfamiliar; Moise Kean, the teenage stud for Juventus, received racist monkey chants and then scored and celebrated with his arms wide facing the racist fans. Bonucci, Kean’s teammate, said Kean was partially to blame for the abuse he got, sparking worldwide criticism. I’m a firm believer in taking the locker room situation into account when making picks, and I actually think they will have this sorted out before the match against Milan. It’s too big of an issue to not address immediately and as much as Bonucci was in the wrong, I’m sure the players have already addressed it and made sure there are no more issues. But I like Juve for more than that. Juve have been unbelievable at home, Milan have been fifth in the league away from home this season and the last time Milan beat Juve at Juve was in 2012 and the last time they won there in the Serie A was in 2011. I just can’t fade Juve at home here in a statement game even before their Champions League match on Wednesday. Juventus (-0.5, -125).

Spanish La Liga
12:30 pm EST

Valencia @ Rayo Vallecano (TV: beIN Sports) – Rayo have lost again! That’s eight losses in their last nine matches, with the other being a draw, and they are now on their way to be relegated. Sadly, they’re facing a Valencia team who just beat Real Madrid (which I called), who haven’t lost in the league since January 5th and who have been pretty darn good away from home this season. There’s just no way I can fade them here. Valencia (-0.5, -105).

English FA Cup Semifinal
12:30 pm EST

Manchester City @ Brighton (Stream: ESPN+) – City will win this semifinal, but they haven’t been as much of a sure thing in these types of matches as you’d think. With the spread being 2.5 and it being a semifinal against a somewhat stingy Brighton team, I’m staying away from that number. But with a total of 3 goals, I love the over. Not only because this City team could have a day and run ragged all over them, but because only one of the last nine FA Cup semifinals have gone under 3 goals. It will either be a 3+ City win or a 2-1/3-1 match. I’ll take the over. Over 3 goals (-120).

Spanish La Liga
2:45 pm EST

Atletico Madrid @ FC Barcelona (TV: beIN Sports) – Another fantastic match even though it doesn’t matter nearly as much as Der Klassiker. It will also be a completely different match as Bayern/Dortmund as this one is usually a very tight, low-scoring game. In fact only only two of the last eight matchups have gone over two goals. But as good as Atletico have been playing, they’ll have to go up against a Barca team who haven’t lost in all competitions since January 23rd (15 matches) and who haven’t lost in the league since November 11th (19 league matches). They’ve won three straight at home and they are fresh off of an insane comeback at Villareal, where a Messi free kick and a Suarez last-second goal, both in extra time, equalized the scoreline at 4-4. I’ll take a low-scoring Barcelona win here in what will be a very tight and intense match. The under could also act as a hedge in what could be a 1-1 or even a 0-0 draw. FC Barcelona (-0.5, -120) and Under 2.5 goals (-110).

Sunday, April 7th
English FA Cup Semifinal

Wolves v. Watford (Stream: ESPN+) – The other FA Cup semifinal will be a much tighter match as the 7th and 8th team in the Premier League face off for a shot at what will likely be City in the final. Wolves have been fantastic this season especially for a newly promoted club and have the ability to beat anyone in the league top to bottom. Luckily the spread is a pickem which is gold in matches that can go into extra time if tied after 90 minutes. Sometimes teams play to get to extra time and penalties as it may be their best shot. I think the team that could be playing for extra time is Watford and Wolves will be the ones trying to win it. Wolves have been excellent in big matches as they beat United in the quarterfinal and in the league over the weekend, and I expect them to at the least put this one into extra time or win in the 90 minutes. I’ll lean on Wolves with the pickem line. Wolves (Pick, -120).

That’s all for this awesome weekend of footy. I hope you can wake up Saturday and Sunday morning with a cup of coffee (or beer) and some breakfast and enjoy the matches. Remember to read the Bayern/Dortmund preview for what will be a legendary match HERE.


Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.

Twitter: @nicodegallo
Instagram: @canikickitblog

Matchweek 33 Preview

The international break ends and we get smacked with non-stop soccer for a whole month as there won’t be a single day without a top-five league match until May 6th. That means we’re going to get nonstop midweek fixtures and I can promise you that you won’t see me complaining.

Let’s see how I did over the weekend…

This Season’s Record: 171-147-41 (+2.7 Units)
Matchweek 32: 3-3-2 (-0.2 Units)

QUICK NOTE: I’ve recently started an Instagram account for the Can i Kick It brand. I’ll be posting highlights, key moments, funny videos and everything else in the world of soccer for your educated and uneducated soccer brains. I can promise it’s worth the follow! @canikickitblog on Instagram.

Let’s rock and roll…

Tuesday, April 2nd
Spanish La Liga
1:30 pm EST

Girona @ Atletico Madrid (beIN Sports) – Girona, oddly enough, have been unbelievable away from home this season and somehow have been the worst team in the league at home. Here they find themselves traveling to Atletico Madrid, a team they’ve historically done really well against. Girona have found themselves better off sitting back and absorbing pressure for 75% of the game these last two years, a tactic both of these teams have used successfully over that same span. Girona’s back five forces Atletico to beat them with steady possession in the final third, something they aren’t usually comfortable doing. That might be why these two have drawn the last five meetings. Although I wish this had a bit more of a cushion, I’m going to take Girona and the points especially with the great price it’s being offered at. Girona (+1, +120).

English Premier League
2:45 pm EST

Fulham @ Watford – It would take a lot for me to bet on Fulham right now. They’re essentially already relegated, they’ve LOST eight straight, only two of those losses came by less than two goals and neither of those two losses were away from home. Watford meanwhile have been winning and losing the games they’re supposed to, showing some sort of consistency. They have had six losses since 12/4 all which came against top six teams. I think this Watford team is good enough to beat anyone outside of the top six at home and I don’t see that sentiment changing here. I’ll take them on a goal spread with a good price. Watford (-1, +110).

Manchester United @ Wolves (NBCSN) – Wolves have won four straight home games coming off of a loss, they beat United last time out before the international break in the FA Cup and are known to be top-six killers. I think United are in for some serious trouble and I also think the international break will have slowed down any sort of momentum they had going into it. United have also lost their last two away matches while Wolves’ home form is picking up as they’ve gone undefeated in the league in their last four home matches (3W and 1D). I like Wolves as home underdogs here with the chance to spoil United’s top four ambitions. Wolves (+0.5, -120).

Wednesday, April 3rd
English Premier League
2:45 pm EST

Brighton @ Chelsea – I absolutely hate betting on or against Chelsea spreads because of their inconsistencies on a matchweek to matchweek basis. But the total did jump out to me. Chelsea’s average total goals scored and conceded for home matches is 2.6 goals per match while Brighton’s average total for away matches is 2.8, giving us an expected total of 2.7. These two teams also seem to love goals when they meet with an average total of 3.25 goals per match the last four times they’ve met. Brighton have also gone over 2.5 goals in nine of their fifteen away matches this season. If all of these reasons don’t convince you to take the over like it did for me then I don’t know what else to tell you. I’m taking the over in a match that could easily have a total of 3 goals. Over 2.5 goals (-130).

Cardiff @ Manchester City – I’ve officially come out of my hiatus in betting on City matches. It’s the team I know best from being City fan for years and I know when it’s time to bet on them and not. I’ve nailed that all season long and I’ve backed off the last few matches due to some uncertainties in the squad and their congestion of fixtures. But City are arguably the best team in the world and they will be facing a very deflated Cardiff side who blew a lead to Chelsea over the weekend, possibly dooming them to relegation. Since 12/30, City have only dropped points once in a fluke loss to Newcastle and are absolutely burning through teams at the moment. They’re finally healthy, having Fernandinho and De Bruyne back in the squad, and they know they need points since Liverpool recently jumped them in the table. Yes this is breaking one of my rules of not betting the favorite on spreads of more than two, but I couldn’t resist. Manchester City (-3, -110).

Italian Serie A
3:00 pm EST

Inter Milan @ Genoa (ESPNEWS) – Inter’s last true away win (not counting their derby win to AC Milan) came almost two months ago against Parma. In fact, they have had only two away wins since the start of November and will be facing a Genoa team who have become a bit dangerous at home this season. Genoa have had one home loss since mid-November with recent wins at home against Lazio and more importantly Juventus, breaking their invincibility run. Also of note is that the home team has won each of the last eleven matches in this matchup, six wins to Inter and five to Genoa. I like Genoa as underdogs in a situation where I think Vegas is overcompensating for Inter’s quality. Genoa (+0.5, -120).

Spanish La Liga
3:30 pm EST

Real Madrid @ Valencia – Valencia are being posed as underdogs at home to a Real Madrid team who I think right now, Valencia are better than. Madrid had serious trouble beating the worst team in the league on Sunday and have gone 4-0-4 (4 wins and 4 losses) in their last eight. Valencia meanwhile haven’t lost in the league since January 5th, a stretch spanning eleven matches and are playing as solid as ever. They’re middle of the table at home this season but they’ve only lost one match (going 4-10-1) at the Mestalla, a place that has given Madrid some trouble over the years. Feed me Valencia as home underdogs in this one. Valencia (+0.5, -130).

That’s all for the matches I like this week. This weekend will be amazing with some huge matches for the title races in the Premier League and the Bundesliga so keep your eye out for that preview on Friday morning.

Don’t forget to SUBSCRIBE at the bottom of the page and follow on Twitter and Instagram!

Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.

Twitter: @nicodegallo
Instagram: @canikickitblog

Champions League R16 Leg 2 3/12-3/13

With Arsenal’s six-point swing over United, Chelsea’s dropped points against Wolves and Spurs’ blown lead to Southampton we now officially have two races at the top of the table. City and Liverpool still remain a point apart at the top of the table but it’s now third through sixth that will be fought for over the next two months as well. Here’s how the top 6 shapes out:

This Season’s Record: 161-140-38 (+0.2 Units)
Matchweek 30 Record: 6-3-1 (+3.0 Units)

The footy rolls on as we close out the Round of 16 in the Champions League this week with only one of the matchups really being out of reach and the rest still up in the air. Let’s get to it.

Tuesday, March 12th
4:00 pm EST

Atletico Madrid (2) @ Juventus (0) (TNT) – Atletico got two crucial goals in the first leg and will be in damage control mode in the second leg here as they know if they bag a goal they should be good to go through. Sitting back actually suits Madrid since they’re known as defensive stalwarts, but they’ll be facing a fresh and rested Juve side who have been unbeatable at home this season. In their 4-1 win on Friday they rested Ronaldo, Chiellini, Dyabala and Mandzukic in preparation for this match compared to Atletico who played on Saturday and started a few more starters in their 1-0 win over Leganes. Juve know they need to score goals which is what they’ve done all year at home and with Ronaldo’s Champions League track record, I love Juve to win this game at the least. We’ll see if they advance but I like them as slight favorites in this match. Juventus (-0.5, -130).

FC Schalke (2) @ Manchester City (3) – There are a couple huge warning signs for Schalke going into this match. The first being they will likely need to score three goals to overcome the aggregate score and the away goal difference (assuming City get a goal in this game). The second one being the rumors that they might not put out a lot of their first team due to injuries and due to their fight to stay in the Bundesliga as they’re only four points from safety. And third, they are 1-2-6 in their last nine matches with each of their last three matches being multiple-goal losses. Yes, City haven’t been their normal self recently, will be without Fernandinho, De Bruyne and Otamendi and have been shaky in the Champions League this season but this is their chance to right the ship in an advantageous position against a vulnerable opponent. They showed signs on Saturday that they are slowly finding their goal-scoring abilities and this will be their first back to back home match since early January. I think City will run through Schalke here and get a few early goals to put the nail in the coffin. Manchester City (-2.5, -105).

Wednesday, March 13th
4:00 pm EST

Lyon (0) @ FC Barcelona (0) – Lyon did a wonderful job keeping Barcelona at bay in the first leg but they now have to go to the Camp Nou and win, or at least keep a clean sheet long enough to put into penalties. I don’t think that will happen. But what I do think will happen is them keeping Barcelona at bay again, enough to cover or at least push the two-goal spread. Lyon have gone undefeated in the Champions League this season, beating City once, drawing City another time and now drawing Barcelona in the first leg. This is a team that has lost by more than two goals once this season, away at PSG a long time ago, and one that figured out how to limit Barca’s effectiveness in front of goal in the first leg. They allowed Barca to go at them, but stayed stout in and around the box keeping everyone behind the ball rather than getting beaten when Barca advanced the ball forward. Although this tactic often can’t last for a whole match, it can last for just long enough to cover a two-goal spread. Lyon also rested many of their starters and key players in preparation for this match over the weekend while Barca still had to start most of their main core. Barcelona will advance don’t get me wrong, but this is a Lyon team that will make that very hard on them and subsequently I’ll take the points. Lyon (+2. -120).

Liverpool (0) @ Bayern Munich (0) (TNT) – This is probably the best match overall of the week when considering the matchup and the aggregate score. Two European titans battle it out in the second leg with everything to play for after going 0-0 in the first? Sign me up. Much of this match is up in the air on paper as it could go either way. Liverpool’s defensive ability and Bayern’s offensive prowess match up so well it’s almost impossible to pick who will come out on top. But there are two things that stick out in this match that I think give Bayern an edge. First thing that jumps off the page is that Bayern will have an extra day of rest since the Premier League didn’t let Liverpool change their Sunday match against Burnley where they won 4-2. The next thing is form. Bayern has one loss since November 10th, are 6-1-0 in their last seven and during that span they have a goal differential of +12 (19 goals scored and 7 goals conceded). Liverpool meanwhile are 3-5-0 in their last eight with draws against Bayern, United and Everton. It’s not that they’re playing poorly but more that they’re not playing to the standard they will need to go to Munich and beat a red hot Bayern side. I like Bayern to win the match in the 90 minutes and advance to the Quarterfinals. Bayern Munich (-0.5, +110).

Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.

Twitter: @nicodegallo
Facebook: Can I Kick It

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