Matchweek 36 Preview

Manchester City showed that they have what it takes to retain their title after surviving the trip across town to Old Trafford, beating United 2-0. Now both City and Liverpool are finally level on matches played with City above them by one point, finally finding some stability after first place has changed hands 28 times this season.

There are three matches left in the Premier League, four left in the Bundesliga, four left in La Liga and five more left in Serie A. The Premier League and the Bundesliga have neck and neck title races, all four leagues have very tight Champions League races, and most leagues have interesting relegation battles all well.

It’s the time of year that clubs can clinch titles, reach the top four and fight for survival which in turn provides us with value across the board. There are a lot of pickems of this week so let’s see if we can pinpoint that value, but first the numbers from this past midweek and overall this season…

This Season’s Record: 197-154-44 (+15.0 Units)
Midweek Matches: 4-1 (+4.4 Units)

Saturday, April 27th
English Premier League
10:00 am EST

Cardiff @ Fulham (TV: NBCSN) – Fulham are already relegated but for Cardiff, this is their best chance at saving their season and staying up in the Premier League. Shockingly enough once Fulham got relegated, they went on a two-match winning streak against Everton and Bournemouth. They’re for sure going down swinging. But they’re facing a desperate Cardiff team who last time out in a similar match a week and a half ago, beat Brighton at Brighton to keep their hopes alive. I think Fulham are due for regression especially since their defense has yet to have back-to-back-to-back clean sheets all year (let alone two in a row before this run) and their offense will likely not be able to make up for those goals conceded. I expect Cardiff to come out swinging and get a point at the minimum, keeping their hopes alive for staying in the Premier League next season. I like them on the pickem line with a positive price. Cardiff (Pick, +110).

Wolves @ Watford – Cue the Spiderman meme.

These two teams who have had almost identical seasons, identical records, similar crests and similar names will be facing off for the right for 7th place on Saturday. We all know how good Wolves have been, especially against the top 6, and it has almost put Watford totally under the radar this year. They’ve gone 6-3-2 at home in their last 11 with their only losses coming against Chelsea and to Arsenal, where they were a man down. Wolves meanwhile haven’t won an away match since the 2nd of February and have had recent struggles against non top 6 teams (oddly enough). I feel much more comfortable taking Watford on the pickem line at home. Watford (Pick, -120).

Bournemouth @ Southampton (TV: CNBC) – Other than their 5-0 win at Brighton (where Brighton were man down for a lot of the match) and their win at Huddersfield, Bournemouth haven’t been good enough lately. Including those wins against those weak opposition they are 2-2-7 in their last 11 and their away record outside of those two wins is 0-4 with a -11 goal differential. Meanwhile Southampton’s recent run hasn’t been nearly as bad, going 3-1 at home in their last four with their only loss coming against Liverpool. In that run of good form at home they beat Spurs and Wolves at home and they even beat Brighton away from home in a massive match for survival. Another reason I like Southampton at home here? They’re not technically safe and three points would all but guarantee their safety this season. Take the Saints. Southampton (-0.5, -110).

12:30 pm EST

Newcastle @ Brighton (NBC) – This. Match. Is. Huge. Brighton are fighting for their lives right now only being three points above Cardiff and a win here with dropped points from Cardiff would almost guarantee their safety. But there’s more to this match for Brighton. Their final two matches after this one are at Arsenal and home to City, two teams who will likely HAVE to win. If they fail to get points here, they’ll leave the door completely open for Cardiff. Adding to that, Brighton have had some inspiring performances this past week grinding to a 1-0 loss at Spurs where they held them for 88 minutes and they drew away to Wolves last weekend. Yes Newcastle have won two straight and their last match away from home, but prior to that away win they hadn’t won away since December which was to Huddersfield. I do wish it was a pickem but I just can’t fade this Brighton team who know they will likely need to win this match if they want to guarantee survival. Brighton (-0.5, +130).

Italian Serie A
2:30 pm EST

Juventus @ Inter Milan – This is such a great match even with Juventus closing out their 8th straight title the other day (yeah, I said 8 straight). But this one isn’t as nearly as much about Juventus as it is about Inter, who are a win away from possibly sealing their spot in next season’s Champions League. Juve are likely to rest a few of their starters to due injury and workload including Dyabala, Chiellini, Mandzukic and possibly even Ronaldo. Inter have somewhat survived the gauntlet that has been the last month, going 3-2-1 against teams like Milan, Lazio, Roma and Atalanta who all reside inside the top 6. Unlike Juve they will have no injury concerns and they have been in decent enough form to take on a somewhat shortened Juventus side who may have their minds already set on the offseason. Give me a motivated Inter team on the pickem line at home. Inter Milan (Pick, -130).

Spanish La Liga
2:45 pm EST

Levante @ FC Barcelona (TV: beIN Sports) – I think Vegas is seriously overlooking this line. FC Barcelona can clinch the La Liga title with a win and will therefore give them much more time to focus on their Champions League Semifinal. They sat a few of their main guys last weekend including Messi to make sure they can be fresh to win the league here at home. Yes, Levante is fighting against relegation and Vegas believes that they could make things tough against Barca here but I couldn’t disagree more. Levante won this past weekend at home to Betis but before that they went nine straight without a win. A motivated and fresh Barcelona side with a title on the line at the Camp Nou is one of the scariest things your eyes could ever look upon. They’re 13-3-1 at home this year with a +31 goal differential and they haven’t dropped points there since early February, to Real Madrid. Feed me Barca here. FC Barcelona (-2, +115).

Sunday, April 28th
English Premier League
7:00 am EST

Arsenal @ Leicester (TV: NBCSN) – It’s no secret that Arsenal are atrocious away from home and it was evident in their 3-1 loss to Wolves this past week (they were down 3-0 by halftime). Meanwhile they’ll face a Leicester team whose offense has begun to click with the addition of Rodgers as manager. They’ve had one match without a goal since his appointment and they’ve averaged 2 goals per game in that span. They’ll face an Arsenal team who, like I said, have been horrible away from home and rank 13th in goals conceded away from home. Rest will also be a concern for the gunners, as this will be their second away match in four days and they’ve had a grueling schedule as of late while Leicester will be rested and have had a manageable schedule the last month. I think this is a recipe for disaster for an Arsenal team who could use some points to stay in the top 4 hunt. I think the Foxes can really exploit this pickem line and worst case settle for the draw. Leicester (Pick, -110).

Italian Serie A
9:00 am EST

Genoa @ SPAL – This is a weird one to be picking, I know, but there is some serious value here. SPAL have been on fire and Genoa’s form is seriously slipping. SPAL have gone 5-1 in their last six and 3-0 in their last 3 at home against Roma, Lazio and Juventus and they’ve managed to climb out of the relegation zone. Genoa on the other hand are winless in their last five, haven’t won an away match since January and have only won two away matches all season long. I love SPAL to keep their form rolling against a very below average Genoa team on the pickem line. SPAL (Pick, -125).

Other big matchups to watch:


Schalke @ Borussia Dortmund (Rivierderby), Saturday 9:30 am EST (FS2)
Chelsea @ Manchester United, Sunday 11:30 am EST (NBCSN)

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Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.

Twitter: @nicodegallo
Instagram: @canikickitblog

Tuesday, 4/16 Champions League Quarterfinal Preview + Bonus Pick

The Leg 2’s are here!! There’s still everything to play for in three of the four matches, but every leg of every Champions League tie is still genuinely thrilling. This piece will include Ajax/Juve and United/Barca (and a bonus pick) while my piece coming out tomorrow will include the other two matches, Liverpool/Porto and Spurs/Man City. Let’s get to it.

This Season’s Record: 185-158-44 (+4.9 Units)
Matchweek 34 Record: 1-4-2 (-3.5) Units)

Tuesday, April 16th
3:00 pm EST

Manchester United @ FC Barcelona (TV: TNT) – Barcelona won the first leg 1-0 at Old Trafford and are bringing that away goal back to the Camp Nou to try to seal their path to the semifinal. Luckily for Barca, this is really the only thing they are focused on right now, as they have the Spanish league locked up and don’t have another match with serious meaning until late May. They rested Messi, Suarez, Pique, Lenglet and Rakitic completely while Coutinho, Alba and Arthur came on as subs this past weekend. But since United are still fighting for a Champions League spot, they instead had to play basically their whole squad this weekend against West Ham to get the points needed to stay in the chase.

Not only is rest and fitness on Barca’s side, but form is as well. United were at risk of having their worst run of form since 1992 if they lost this past weekend, but they pulled off a 2-1 win to West Ham at home. In their last six matches in all competitions they have two wins and four losses, with their only wins being at home to Watford in late March and West Ham this past weekend. They’ve actually lost their last four away matches, not boding well going into one of the cathedrals of world football, where Barcelona have not lost since November.

Barcelona meanwhile haven’t lost a competitive match since January 23rd and in their last six matches at full strength (where they aren’t resting most of their starters), they are 6-1-0 with a goal differential of +14, making for an average winning margin of 2 goals. Adding to that, they’ve been historically great in late-stage home Champions League legs (Quarterfinals/Semifinals). They’ve lost once in that criteria since 2008 and in the last four seasons they’ve gone 4-1-0 with a goal differential of +7.

Barca are known for not only winning Champions League legs, but for stepping on the throats of opponents at Camp Nou in those situations. They’re better overall, in better form, less tired and they have the best player in the world at the top of his game right now and I just can’t fade them. FC Barcelona (-1.5, -105).

Ajax @ Juventus – Kind of disappointed this one isn’t the match on TNT but I do understand that Messi and Barca/United is must-see TV. I think this match is going to be an absolute peach though, especially after how the first leg went. Ajax were completely up for it, scoring just 30 seconds into the second half and stifling Juventus’ offense completely right afterwards. They had 60% possession, 12 more shots, 226 more accurate passes and they forced Juve to use the long ball to break through their midfield, something they’re not used to doing. The one thing that’s stuck out to me about this Ajax team is that, even with how egregiously young they are, they’ve responded to every thing that’s been thrown their way. They went to Madrid and won 4-1, they drew Bayern twice in the group stage and they basically dominated Juve last week.

Juve come into this match after a tough loss to SPAL in the Serie A this weekend, but much like Barcelona they only played 2 players who got the start in Leg 1 in Amsterdam. They should be very rested and their loss to SPAL shouldn’t be a reflection at all of their form, but if you dive a little deeper you’ll realize they haven’t been exactly who they were earlier in the year. They’ve been out-shot and out-possessed in each of their last three matches, a stark contrast to their dominance from earlier in the year. This could be a product of having the league wrapped up and only the Champions League to play for, but the inconsistency of squads and performances should worry Juve bettors.

Now I’m not predicting Ajax to win and it’s not that they won’t, but it will be tough for them to waltz into the Allianz Stadium and have the same performance they did last week. But with Juve’s lack of dominance recently and their lack of maintaining systematic control of matches, this match could fit right into Ajax’s playbook to keep it tight. Outside of a few first half chances and the lack of marking Ronaldo on the goal (which shouldn’t happen again), Ajax’s defense didn’t allow Juventus to get any momentum throughout the match. Ajax caught Juventus sleeping on their goal and then kept their foot on the pedal, proving that you can’t and most likely won’t be able to coast against this team. Their midfield can create from deep with De Jong or around the box and they have the finishers to punish you with only a few good chances. If they can cut off the passing lines out wide to the outside backs, who love to whip balls in, and limit the other passing lanes to Ronaldo, I think Ajax can make this close or even push it to extra time.

I’m going to take the points. I think Ajax will be fearless, knowing that they can run with this team and the one goal spread gives them a ton of value if they get a goal as a 1-1 match puts it into extra time. Ajax (+1, -135).

BONUS PICK:

Cardiff @ Brighton (TV: NBCSN) – Oh Premier League you sneaky dogs. They slipped in one of the matches of the week with two relegation teams battling it out. These are my favorite matches since they’re usually very intense, have players playing for their jobs and the club playing to stay in the Premier League. They even say promotion and relegation are worth around $100 million.

But bottom line is that Cardiff have a much bigger hill to climb than Brighton and they will be utterly desperate here. I think that will be their downfall as they will end up going for the three points knowing that it will likely be the only result that can keep them up. The reason why I’m fading them? This strategy, especially away from home and against arguably a better team, often does not work. They’ll likely overextend themselves and allow for Brighton to counter. I usually like betting on the teams that need to win, but Cardiff might need to win too much and it will be their downfall against a Brighton team who have conceded 12 less goals this campaign. I’ll take Brighton as slight favorites here, with the rationale that a win at home will guarantee their survival. Brighton (-0.5, +105).

That’s all for today’s matches! Don’t forget to subscribe at the bottom of the page and to follow on Twitter and Instagram!!

Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.

Twitter: @nicodegallo
Instagram: @canikickitblog

Wednesday, 4/10 Champions League Quarterfinals Preview

Tuesday Recap:

  • Liverpool beat Porto 2-0 with two early first half goals by Keita and Firmino. They controlled the match from start to finish and didn’t allow Porto to get anything going offensively. As I said in my preview, Porto aren’t used to playing without the ball and it clearly showed on Tuesday. They now have a huge scoreline to make up in the second leg at home in Portugal.
  • Spurs beat City 1-0 thanks to a Heung-Min Son goal in the 78th minute. An early Sergio Aguero penalty could have changed the game but it was saved brilliantly by Lloris and it sparked a belief in Spurs. After that penalty, the energy on the pitch and in the stadium was beyond intense. It was physical, fast, loud and a complete joy to watch, as Spurs now go to Manchester with a one-goal lead and can seal their path to the semifinals with a draw or win in Leg 2.

This Season’s Record: 181-154-42 (+4.1 Units)
4/9 UCL Quarterfinals: 1-1 (-0.1) Units)

Wednesday, April 10th
UEFA Champions League
3:00 pm EST

Juventus @ Ajax – As most people know by now Ajax got through to the Quarterfinals by beating Real Madrid twice in the Round of 16, a feat that can’t be taken lightly. Juventus meanwhile came back from down 2 goals to Atletico Madrid thanks to a second leg hat trick from Cristiano Ronaldo. They’re two teams that have historic pasts, similar playing styles but somehow still feel very different.

Let’s start with Juventus, who will be returning their star Ronaldo after he missed their last three games due to a hamstring injury he picked up over the international break. Allegri already said he is going to start and it should provide an immediate boost to a team who are already coming off of a big win against Milan over the weekend. But this match isn’t as simple as ‘they return Ronaldo, have more quality and are in good form so they should win’. They have to shake off some away demons in the champions league as they’ve lost their last two Champions League away matches, at Young Boys in the group stage and Atletico Madrid in Leg 1 of the Round of 16. They’ll have to go to a very tough place to play in the Johan Cruyff Arena and face an Ajax team who have been brilliant at home this year, and as we learned on Tuesday with both away teams losing, that is very tough.

I think their undoing could be trying to force the ball to Ronaldo, who is just getting back to the squad and the sole reason they’re in the Quarterfinals. He’s also the most decorated Champions League player ever, so it wouldn’t doubt me if did they try to force feed him the ball whenever they could. If instead they can balance their attack and switch the play constantly to spread the Ajax defense out, I think they’ll be successful in finding Ronaldo more organically. Switching the play should also free him more space unless he is man-marked or shadowed, which in turn would free up the likes of Dyabala and Mandzukic. I don’t think his re-addition to the lineup will hurt them, but only if they feel the need to run everything through him on offense. It will be crucial for the supporting cast to step up if he’s either not 100% or marked the whole match.

Ajax went undefeated at home in the group this year and their only home loss in the Champions League was in the first leg to Real Madrid, where they could’ve easily gotten a result with how well they played. Since they lost to Madrid at home, you’d think they’d have trouble against high-quality opposition right? Wrong. This is a team that stood toe to toe with Bayern twice, drawing them 3-3 and 1-1 in the Group Stage this season. The only issue I have is whether or not they can contain Ronaldo both in the air and on the counter attack, where he’s thrived this season on Juve. They need to make sure he never goes unmarked especially as he’s entering the box as he’s the biggest aerial threat they’ll possibly ever face. If they stay disciplined in their marking, they should be able to force Juve to run their offense through someone else. But as I said before, they must balance between shadowing him and cutting off his passing lanes, as they don’t want to free up the rest of the Juve attack.

I think Ajax will be up to the task here at home, knowing this is the last year that this young core has to make an impact before they all move on to bigger clubs. Their defense is good enough to stop quality opponents and even if they need to get into a shootout, they have the offensive firepower to match most clubs. But this Juventus team rarely plays in a hurry and I expect them to keep this low scoring, especially since it’s the first leg. Juve are in no rush to win the tie right now, as they know they’ll be bringing it home in the second leg and any result here would do. Ajax meanwhile know they can’t just take it to Juve, as they need to be a bit more careful than the Italians. I think both teams would settle for a draw, but it’s imperative that Ajax try to keep a clean sheet in order to have a chance on the away goals tiebreaker. This is why I’m going to take the under and the draw. I think it could be a 1-1 draw or a low-scoring win for either team and Ajax will live to fight another day. Under 2.5 goals (-115) and Draw (+225).

FC Barcelona @ Manchester United (TV: TNT) – Woaahhh nelly do we have a good one here too. Manchester United have slipped into a poor run of form and will now have to beat one of the best teams in the world and arguably the best player of all time to turn it around. Luckily for them they should be fearless, (well most of them), since they’ve already pulled off a miracle this year. But this one might be a little different than that tie and I’ll get into why.

United have lost three of their last four matches, two to Wolves and one to Arsenal. It’s not as much that they’ve lost but more how they’ve lost. Their defense has been their biggest problem as they haven’t gotten a clean sheet since the Liverpool game in February (eight matches). They’ll now have to face a Barcelona team who not only have the best player in the planet who happens to be in the form of his life, but also one that just came off of a win against Atletico Madrid, who are one of the best defensive teams in the world. This Barca team has also scored 20 goals in their last six matches (an average of 3.3). If United want any sort of chance of getting a result out of the first leg, they’ll need to stop that deadly attack.

But their defensive strategy is both a blessing and a curse as they’ve been successful sitting back, absorbing pressure and countering against most teams in the Premier League, but that’s also where Barcelona thrive. United will need to find some sort of a balance between absorbing pressure and countering, much like how Spurs did on Tuesday against City. United will also have to deal with preventing Barca’s skill players (Messi, Suarez, Dembele, Coutinho) from dribbling through them, something they’ve had trouble with all season. Obviously this is asking the impossible out of guys like Smalling, Jones and/or Lindelof, but if they want any chance of winning they’ll need to be the ones to stop that front three.

For Barcelona, this match is a bit easier to break down. It should be business as usual for them as they’ll likely see the majority of the ball and chances, which plays right into their comfort zone. What Barca did this weekend to Atletico will be much like what they’ll want to do to United. Yes Atletico had a red card but I do see some similarities in what I expect to see on Wednesday. 64% possession, twice the shots, twice the passes and twice the chances created. They’ll have Messi both dropping in deep to receive the ball and when they have sustained possession, he’ll be sitting just outside the box ready to strike. He has over 40 goals this season, the most combined goals and assists this season by over 12 points (Messi has 45 goals/assists and Mbappe has 33) and loves to beat United and English opposition in the Champions League. In fact he’s won two Champions League Finals against United alone, scoring a goal and winning Man of the Match in each one. This is the exact moment, at Old Trafford under the lights, that he will thrive in. I genuinely don’t see how United can stop him, let alone the rest of the team. If it’s not Messi who’s making the United backline look silly, it will be Suarez, Dembele or Coutinho.

I don’t see United getting points out of this and I think Messi and Barcelona will take the first leg comfortably. FC Barcelona (-0.5, -105).

That’s all for Wednesday’s preview! Don’t forget to subscribe at the bottom of the page and to follow on Twitter and Instagram!

Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.

Twitter: @nicodegallo
Instagram: @canikickitblog

Matchweek 33 Weekend Preview

We have an amazing weekend ahead of us but let’s look back on what was an interesting week in the Premier League.

This Season’s Record: 175-150-41 (+3.5 Units)
Matchweek 33 Weekday: 4-3 (+0.8 Units)

Quick Premier League Recap:

  • Man City jump back into first as they are now one point above Liverpool with the same matches played.
  • Spurs win in their new ground for the first time and jump back into third place, pushing Arsenal back to fourth.
  • Chelsea won and sit in fifth tied with Arsenal on points, but with a worse differential than the gooners by five goals.
  • Fulham have been relegated.

We go into a weekend which includes a few MASSIVE matches including the Der Klassiker between Bayern and Dortmund, Barcelona host Atletico Madrid, Juventus host Milan and the FA Cup semifinals will be taking place at Wembley. I’ll have a pick for all of them as well as a few wild card matches where I find some value.

I put my Bayern/Dortmund preview separately due to it’s length compared to my other previews which you can find HERE. I highly recommend you take a quick read as it may be the match of the club season.

Let’s kick it…

Saturday, April 6th
German Bundesliga
9:30 am EST

RB Leipzig @ Bayer Leverkusen (TV: FS2) – These two have been in polar opposite form both short term and long term. Leverkusen have lost their last two and are 2-1-3 (W-D-L) in their last six while Lepizig have won their last three and their only losses in 2019 have been to Dortmund and Bayern. I love Leipzig not only because of the intrinsic value a pickem has, but the price of (+110) is too good to pass up when they’re the better team and are in better form. They’ve also been impressive away from home this season. I’ll take Leipzig. RB Leipzig (Pickem, +110).

English Premier League
10:00 am EST

Leicester @ Huddersfield – Leicester are on fire right now and they will be traveling to a Huddersfield squad who are in complete shambles. They’ve lost four straight to Brighton, Bournemouth, West Ham and Palace while Leicester have won four of the last five. Adding to that, Leicester are sixth in the away table in the league and Huddersfield are last in the home table. I’ll never bet on Huddersfield and Leicester are a hot ticket, so good luck convincing me against this one even with the heavy price as favorites. Leicester City (-0.5, -130).

Crystal Palace @ Newcastle United (TV: NBCSN) – Newcastle have turned their poor away form from earlier in the season around but will have to face a Palace team who have been great away from home this season. But not only is history not on Palace’s side here as they have only won once at Newcastle since the early 70’s, but Newcastle have won their last four at home including wins against City and Everton. I also think Palace having to play two away matches back to back will be tough, especially going to rival Spurs opening their new stadium then to Newcastle which is one of the harder places to play at. Yes Palace’s form all season away from home has been great, but Newcastle are in a bit better shape especially as of late. I like Newcastle on the home pickem line. Newcastle United (Pick, -120).

Italian Serie A
12:00 pm EST

AC Milan @ Juventus (Stream: ESPN+) – Juve will be coming into this match with a cloud looming over them after the Moise Kean incident. If you’re unfamiliar; Moise Kean, the teenage stud for Juventus, received racist monkey chants and then scored and celebrated with his arms wide facing the racist fans. Bonucci, Kean’s teammate, said Kean was partially to blame for the abuse he got, sparking worldwide criticism. I’m a firm believer in taking the locker room situation into account when making picks, and I actually think they will have this sorted out before the match against Milan. It’s too big of an issue to not address immediately and as much as Bonucci was in the wrong, I’m sure the players have already addressed it and made sure there are no more issues. But I like Juve for more than that. Juve have been unbelievable at home, Milan have been fifth in the league away from home this season and the last time Milan beat Juve at Juve was in 2012 and the last time they won there in the Serie A was in 2011. I just can’t fade Juve at home here in a statement game even before their Champions League match on Wednesday. Juventus (-0.5, -125).

Spanish La Liga
12:30 pm EST

Valencia @ Rayo Vallecano (TV: beIN Sports) – Rayo have lost again! That’s eight losses in their last nine matches, with the other being a draw, and they are now on their way to be relegated. Sadly, they’re facing a Valencia team who just beat Real Madrid (which I called), who haven’t lost in the league since January 5th and who have been pretty darn good away from home this season. There’s just no way I can fade them here. Valencia (-0.5, -105).

English FA Cup Semifinal
12:30 pm EST

Manchester City @ Brighton (Stream: ESPN+) – City will win this semifinal, but they haven’t been as much of a sure thing in these types of matches as you’d think. With the spread being 2.5 and it being a semifinal against a somewhat stingy Brighton team, I’m staying away from that number. But with a total of 3 goals, I love the over. Not only because this City team could have a day and run ragged all over them, but because only one of the last nine FA Cup semifinals have gone under 3 goals. It will either be a 3+ City win or a 2-1/3-1 match. I’ll take the over. Over 3 goals (-120).

Spanish La Liga
2:45 pm EST

Atletico Madrid @ FC Barcelona (TV: beIN Sports) – Another fantastic match even though it doesn’t matter nearly as much as Der Klassiker. It will also be a completely different match as Bayern/Dortmund as this one is usually a very tight, low-scoring game. In fact only only two of the last eight matchups have gone over two goals. But as good as Atletico have been playing, they’ll have to go up against a Barca team who haven’t lost in all competitions since January 23rd (15 matches) and who haven’t lost in the league since November 11th (19 league matches). They’ve won three straight at home and they are fresh off of an insane comeback at Villareal, where a Messi free kick and a Suarez last-second goal, both in extra time, equalized the scoreline at 4-4. I’ll take a low-scoring Barcelona win here in what will be a very tight and intense match. The under could also act as a hedge in what could be a 1-1 or even a 0-0 draw. FC Barcelona (-0.5, -120) and Under 2.5 goals (-110).

Sunday, April 7th
English FA Cup Semifinal

Wolves v. Watford (Stream: ESPN+) – The other FA Cup semifinal will be a much tighter match as the 7th and 8th team in the Premier League face off for a shot at what will likely be City in the final. Wolves have been fantastic this season especially for a newly promoted club and have the ability to beat anyone in the league top to bottom. Luckily the spread is a pickem which is gold in matches that can go into extra time if tied after 90 minutes. Sometimes teams play to get to extra time and penalties as it may be their best shot. I think the team that could be playing for extra time is Watford and Wolves will be the ones trying to win it. Wolves have been excellent in big matches as they beat United in the quarterfinal and in the league over the weekend, and I expect them to at the least put this one into extra time or win in the 90 minutes. I’ll lean on Wolves with the pickem line. Wolves (Pick, -120).

That’s all for this awesome weekend of footy. I hope you can wake up Saturday and Sunday morning with a cup of coffee (or beer) and some breakfast and enjoy the matches. Remember to read the Bayern/Dortmund preview for what will be a legendary match HERE.

DON’T FORGET TO FOLLOW THE NEW INSTAGRAM ACCOUNT! @canikickitblog

Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.

Twitter: @nicodegallo
Instagram: @canikickitblog

Champions League R16 Leg 2 3/12-3/13

With Arsenal’s six-point swing over United, Chelsea’s dropped points against Wolves and Spurs’ blown lead to Southampton we now officially have two races at the top of the table. City and Liverpool still remain a point apart at the top of the table but it’s now third through sixth that will be fought for over the next two months as well. Here’s how the top 6 shapes out:


This Season’s Record: 161-140-38 (+0.2 Units)
Matchweek 30 Record: 6-3-1 (+3.0 Units)

The footy rolls on as we close out the Round of 16 in the Champions League this week with only one of the matchups really being out of reach and the rest still up in the air. Let’s get to it.

Tuesday, March 12th
4:00 pm EST

Atletico Madrid (2) @ Juventus (0) (TNT) – Atletico got two crucial goals in the first leg and will be in damage control mode in the second leg here as they know if they bag a goal they should be good to go through. Sitting back actually suits Madrid since they’re known as defensive stalwarts, but they’ll be facing a fresh and rested Juve side who have been unbeatable at home this season. In their 4-1 win on Friday they rested Ronaldo, Chiellini, Dyabala and Mandzukic in preparation for this match compared to Atletico who played on Saturday and started a few more starters in their 1-0 win over Leganes. Juve know they need to score goals which is what they’ve done all year at home and with Ronaldo’s Champions League track record, I love Juve to win this game at the least. We’ll see if they advance but I like them as slight favorites in this match. Juventus (-0.5, -130).

FC Schalke (2) @ Manchester City (3) – There are a couple huge warning signs for Schalke going into this match. The first being they will likely need to score three goals to overcome the aggregate score and the away goal difference (assuming City get a goal in this game). The second one being the rumors that they might not put out a lot of their first team due to injuries and due to their fight to stay in the Bundesliga as they’re only four points from safety. And third, they are 1-2-6 in their last nine matches with each of their last three matches being multiple-goal losses. Yes, City haven’t been their normal self recently, will be without Fernandinho, De Bruyne and Otamendi and have been shaky in the Champions League this season but this is their chance to right the ship in an advantageous position against a vulnerable opponent. They showed signs on Saturday that they are slowly finding their goal-scoring abilities and this will be their first back to back home match since early January. I think City will run through Schalke here and get a few early goals to put the nail in the coffin. Manchester City (-2.5, -105).

Wednesday, March 13th
4:00 pm EST

Lyon (0) @ FC Barcelona (0) – Lyon did a wonderful job keeping Barcelona at bay in the first leg but they now have to go to the Camp Nou and win, or at least keep a clean sheet long enough to put into penalties. I don’t think that will happen. But what I do think will happen is them keeping Barcelona at bay again, enough to cover or at least push the two-goal spread. Lyon have gone undefeated in the Champions League this season, beating City once, drawing City another time and now drawing Barcelona in the first leg. This is a team that has lost by more than two goals once this season, away at PSG a long time ago, and one that figured out how to limit Barca’s effectiveness in front of goal in the first leg. They allowed Barca to go at them, but stayed stout in and around the box keeping everyone behind the ball rather than getting beaten when Barca advanced the ball forward. Although this tactic often can’t last for a whole match, it can last for just long enough to cover a two-goal spread. Lyon also rested many of their starters and key players in preparation for this match over the weekend while Barca still had to start most of their main core. Barcelona will advance don’t get me wrong, but this is a Lyon team that will make that very hard on them and subsequently I’ll take the points. Lyon (+2. -120).

Liverpool (0) @ Bayern Munich (0) (TNT) – This is probably the best match overall of the week when considering the matchup and the aggregate score. Two European titans battle it out in the second leg with everything to play for after going 0-0 in the first? Sign me up. Much of this match is up in the air on paper as it could go either way. Liverpool’s defensive ability and Bayern’s offensive prowess match up so well it’s almost impossible to pick who will come out on top. But there are two things that stick out in this match that I think give Bayern an edge. First thing that jumps off the page is that Bayern will have an extra day of rest since the Premier League didn’t let Liverpool change their Sunday match against Burnley where they won 4-2. The next thing is form. Bayern has one loss since November 10th, are 6-1-0 in their last seven and during that span they have a goal differential of +12 (19 goals scored and 7 goals conceded). Liverpool meanwhile are 3-5-0 in their last eight with draws against Bayern, United and Everton. It’s not that they’re playing poorly but more that they’re not playing to the standard they will need to go to Munich and beat a red hot Bayern side. I like Bayern to win the match in the 90 minutes and advance to the Quarterfinals. Bayern Munich (-0.5, +110).

Stay Kickin’ It. Peace.

Twitter: @nicodegallo
Facebook: Can I Kick It

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